Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 97096.406214 102342.775584 107584.454603 113210.917447 119075.889707 125005.690014 131450.614687
2025-09-21 88089.756951 96091.890266 104306.877250 113360.141433 123046.441263 133088.520088 144275.618030
2025-09-28 81650.120082 91527.270649 101886.731027 113540.476647 126262.899126 139708.165525 154969.236403
2025-10-05 77819.080494 89224.755803 101400.661859 115330.139960 130787.639418 147377.642968 166491.603217
2025-10-12 74546.104985 87181.632544 100880.313973 116782.246354 134678.885349 154142.328714 176853.706542
2025-10-19 71367.999770 84982.937263 99951.569837 117557.763138 137624.052878 159705.555924 185763.644620
2025-10-26 68221.502197 82611.882811 98640.111360 117722.954196 139725.684317 164199.903661 193378.760798
2025-11-02 65610.511229 80700.355200 97711.441262 118192.514441 142059.759600 168869.888213 201132.490036
2025-11-09 62984.682414 78634.531202 96480.576623 118196.147913 143756.957193 172735.423293 207912.131566
2025-11-16 61269.691144 77552.133711 96316.482159 119372.262977 146759.581125 178069.593062 216376.691139
2025-11-23 59000.373608 75704.867302 95157.575016 119288.833819 148211.608500 181548.356053 222648.700031
2025-11-30 57779.835364 75065.560186 95387.000322 120815.120762 151539.416071 187213.599732 231498.406419
2025-12-07 56313.977107 74088.810623 95186.798517 121817.948195 154257.833915 192201.738306 239627.430116
2025-12-14 54498.144733 72614.763798 94326.650815 121972.841432 155922.310130 195922.603755 246258.204718
2025-12-21 52814.481355 71243.443659 93536.841642 122163.514655 157591.151714 199625.864470 252864.858276
2025-12-28 52074.107235 71027.803917 94149.047657 124063.303396 161341.776843 205848.216471 262542.024815
2026-01-04 51213.287037 70620.819570 94491.677474 125604.633772 164640.118081 211527.126667 271587.075283
2026-01-11 50069.011997 69806.641743 94285.502119 126427.729529 167027.931333 216089.102800 279282.748511
2026-01-18 48690.857723 68643.002625 93595.225991 126603.047608 168579.338216 219609.158279 285701.423347
2026-01-25 47527.171269 67722.502835 93182.140825 127101.385157 170515.937733 223597.092732 292706.607198
2026-02-01 46204.817270 66551.323731 92409.178263 127105.241125 171801.336341 226761.929702 298691.401330
2026-02-08 45476.444902 66148.321485 92612.994848 128353.342802 174663.823311 231903.099865 307165.969382
2026-02-15 44222.995902 65001.348232 91810.520077 128264.811540 175792.293570 234855.123149 312898.846508